CNN: Labour set for UK election landslide, exit poll predicts By Rob Picheta, Lauren Said-Moorhouse, Billy Stockwell, Peter Wilkinson and Sarah Tilotta, CNN Updated 6:45 PM EDT, Thu July 4, 2024. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/uk-general-election-results-2024-intl/index.html

 

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Labour set for UK election landslide, exit poll predicts

By Rob Picheta, Lauren Said-Moorhouse, Billy Stockwell, Peter Wilkinson and Sarah Tilotta, CNN

Updated 6:45 PM EDT, Thu July 4, 2024

UK Conservatives in a 'difficult' situation ahead of elections

03:23 - Source: CNN

What we're covering

Labour’s Keir Starmer looks set to become the UK’s next prime minister after an exit poll projected a landslide win for his party. 

The poll predicts a disastrous night ahead for the Conservative Party, forecasting its lowest-ever total number of seats and bringing a brutal end to Rishi Sunak’s premiership.

Votes are now being counted, with seats declared through the night.

We’ll have results, analysis and context throughout the night here and across CNN’s platforms.

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4 min ago

Labour win a second seat, and the Conservatives slump again

From CNN's Rob Picheta in London

Labour has won Blyth and Ashington, the second seat of the night to declare, with the populist Reform UK party again putting in a strong showing and coming second.

Labour won 50% of the vote to Reform’s 27%, and the Tories slipped to 15%.

This is a new constituency, created after the boundaries of the UK’s 650 seats were adjusted following the most recent election in 2019. The borders of most seats in the country have changed at least slightly since that vote, as they do every few decades. 

But Labour would have won this seat with 48% of the vote had it existed in 2019, to the Conservatives’ 34%, according to notional calculations.  

 

11 min ago

The UK's exit poll is usually very accurate

Ballot boxes are emptied at Emirates Arena in Glasgow, Scotland, on Thursday, July 4. 

Ballot boxes are emptied at Emirates Arena in Glasgow, Scotland, on Thursday, July 4. Andrew Milligan/PA Wire 

A reminder: the UK’s election exit poll is usually a very accurate barometer of how many seats each party has won.

But, as politicians are reminding broadcasters, it is just a poll.

The exit poll was conducted Thursday at polling stations across the country, collecting a huge sample from across the UK of how people voted. It is then modelled by a panel of experts, and closely guarded from the public and the media.

In 2019, the exit poll predicted the Conservatives would win 368 seats, just three more than they did when the final results were in. Two years earlier, it missed the Tories’ seat total by three, this time in the opposite direction.

 

5 min ago

The first results from the night are in

From CNN's Rob Picheta in London

Bridget Phillipson, Labour's shadow Education Secretary, speaks after winning the Houghton and Sunderland South constituency on July 4. 

Bridget Phillipson, Labour's shadow Education Secretary, speaks after winning the Houghton and Sunderland South constituency on July 4. Owen Humphreys/PA Wire

Sunderland South has won the race to declare the first results of the night – and they show a solid Labour result and a huge uptick for the populist party Reform UK.

Labour held the seat, as it was virtually certain to do, and Reform overtook the Conservatives to take second place.

Bridget Phillipson, Labour’s shadow Education Secretary, becomes the first MP to be elected into the new parliament.

What the results indicate: Labour won 47% of the vote in the seat, while Reform picked up 29%. The Conservatives slipped to just 14%.

This is a traditional Labour stronghold, though the party won it by a narrower margin at the 2019 election – picking up 41% of the vote to 33% for the Conservatives. 

More clues as to the results of the night will come soon, as a handful of seats are expected to declare in the next half hour.

But Conservatives will be concerned by their drop in Sunderland, while Reform will be hopeful that it can establish itself as a second-placed party in many more seats, while gaining a handful across the country.

 

28 min ago

Exit poll projection of a Labour landslide has margins similar to Tony Blair's 1997 win

From CNN's Catherine Nicholls in London

Tony Blair arrives in Downing Street in London, following his 1997 election victory. 

Tony Blair arrives in Downing Street in London, following his 1997 election victory. Jeff Overs/BBC/Getty Images

Labour’s predicted landslide win is a similar margin to the one that swept the party’s then leader Tony Blair into Downing Street in 1997, according to Gideon Skinner, senior UK Director of Politics at market research company Ipsos. 

Skinner told CNN the predicted Labour win could be due, in part, to tactical voting among typical Labour and Liberal Democrat voters.

In 1997, Blair’s Labour party won 418 seats, the largest majority of seats since 1945. The Conservative Party won 165 seats.

According to this year’s exit poll, Labour will win 410 seats. That will hand Keir Starmer a massive parliamentary majority of 170 seats, just shy of the party’s greatest-ever result.

The Conservatives drop to just 131 seats, a stunning collapse by a governing party, according to the poll.

 

35 min ago

“A massacre:” Senior Tories react to exit poll results

From CNN's Billy Stockwell in London

The general election exit poll is projected onto BBC Broadcasting House in London on July 4.

The general election exit poll is projected onto BBC Broadcasting House in London on July 4. Handout/Jeff Overs/BBC/Getty Images

Senior Conservative politicians have responded with shock to the Labour Party’s projected landslide win in Britain’s general election.  

Ruth Davidson, the former leader of the Scottish Conservative Party, told Sky News: “There is no dressing it up, this is a massacre.”

Former Conservative Justice Secretary Robert Buckland, who is forecast to lose his seat, told Sky News that he is “used to what defeat looks like and I’m prepared for it.” But he said he hoped his political life would continue. “I’ll be leaving parliament to spend more time on politics,” he quipped.

Steve Baker, who was Rishi Sunak’s Minister of State for Northern Ireland, told the BBC that “it’s a pretty devastating night for the Conservative Party.” Baker is also projected to lose his seat.

Baker said that he’s got a “great deal of respect for Rishi Sunak.” He later added: “I think he will do what he believes is in the national interest.” 

Shortly before polls closed at 10 p.m., Sunak thanked voters on X. He said: “To the hundreds of Conservative candidates, thousands of volunteers and millions of voters: Thank you for your hard work, thank you for your support, and thank you for your vote.” 

 

39 min ago

How each party has fared in the exit poll

From CNN's Rob Picheta in London

Labour is projected to win 410 seats, and a massive majority of 170 seats. This would fall just short of the party’s best-ever result, in 1997, when Tony Blair’s Labour won 418 seats, a majority of 179. The result is in line with what pollsters had projected for Labour, which has enjoyed a huge lead in public opinion for years and had held onto that advantage throughout the campaign.

For the Conservatives, the result is calamitous. The party, which has earned a reputation over the decades as a ruthless election winner, is projected to win just suffer its worst result since its modern iteration was formed in the 1830s. It is an overwhelming rejection of a ruling party by the British electorate, which has dumped the party from government.

The centrist Liberal Democrats will be pleased with their result, which puts them on course to return as the UK’s third-largest party. The group has suffered since it joined the Tories in a coalition government between 2010 and 2015, but voters have seemingly forgiven them for that stint.

The Scottish National Party, a pro-independence group that has dominated politics in Scotland for a generation, will be devastated with the forecast. It signals that the Labour Party has regained its historic strength in Scotland and represents a setback for the Scottish independence movement.

And Reform UK, the right-wing populist group led by Nigel Farage, has been forecast to win more seats that most pollsters expected. Farage has hammered the Conservatives on their failure to bring down legal and illegal migration, and had been expected to win the seat where he was standing in Clacton, east of London.

 

1 hr 12 min ago

Keir Starmer thanks voters and campaigners, as exit poll puts him on the cusp of power

Labour leader Keir Starmer has thanked campaigners and voters, but he hasn’t commented yet on the results of the exit poll that forecast him a huge majority.

Angela Rayner, Labour’s deputy leader, said the exit poll numbers were “encouraging.” 

“Keir Starmer has done a tremendous job of transforming the Labour Party and putting forward a program for government that I’m hopeful that people have got behind,” she told BBC immediately after the poll numbers dropped.

Rayner said it would “be an absolute honor and a privilege to be reelected,” but added, “I’m not counting my chickens until we’ve got those results coming in.”

 

1 hr 11 min ago

See the full exit poll results

An exit poll is projected onto BBC Broadcasting House in London, on July 4. 

An exit poll is projected onto BBC Broadcasting House in London, on July 4. Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images

Here’s the full seat breakdown from the exit poll just released.

It’s a huge return for the Labour Party, a monumental collapse for the Conservatives just five years after they won a landslide election victory, and impressive showings for the centrist Liberal Democrats and the right-wing populist party Reform UK.

Labour: 410 seats

Conservatives: 131

Liberal Democrats: 61

Reform UK: 13

Scottish National Party: 10

Others: 25

 

1 hr 37 min ago

Labour will win 410 seats, exit poll projects, enough for a huge parliamentary majority

From CNN's Rob Picheta in London

Election workers are seen in Sunderland, northern England, on Thursday July 4.

Election workers are seen in Sunderland, northern England, on Thursday July 4.

Labour will win 410 seats, according to the major exit poll just released. That will hand Keir Starmer a massive parliamentary majority of 170 seats, just shy of the party’s greatest-ever result.

The Conservatives drop to just 131 seats, a stunning collapse by a governing party, according to the poll.

The Liberal Democrats will return as the third largest party, with 61 seats.

Read the full story here.

 

1 hr 46 min ago

BREAKING: UK's center-left Labour Party will win general election in a landslide, exit poll projects 

From CNN's Rob Picheta in London

UK Labour Party leader Keir Starmer arrives at a polling station in London on July 4. 

UK Labour Party leader Keir Starmer arrives at a polling station in London on July 4. Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto/Getty Images

The center-left Labour Party will win Britain’s general election by a landslide, according to a major exit poll, ending a 14-year era of Conservative rule in decisive fashion and putting its leader Keir Starmer on course to become prime minister in the coming hours. 

This is a breaking news story. More details soon… 

 

1 hr 56 min ago

We're minutes away from the exit poll

Get ready: the exit poll for Britain’s general election will be released in 10 minutes.

This is a huge poll, conducted today at polling stations across the country, that forecasts the number of seats each party has won.

It’s historically an accurate picture of the how the election went, and will set up the narrative of the evening.

 

1 hr 59 min ago

What is King Charles III's role in the election?

From CNN’s Lauren Said-Moorhouse in London

King Charles III takes part in the Ceremony of the Keys on the forecourt of the Palace of Holyroodhouse in Edinburgh, Scotland on July 2. 

King Charles III takes part in the Ceremony of the Keys on the forecourt of the Palace of Holyroodhouse in Edinburgh, Scotland on July 2. Andrew Milligan/WPA Pool/Getty Images

You may have noticed King Charles III hasn’t been out and about quite as much over the last six weeks and it’s not for the reason you think.  

In fact, soon after Rishi Sunak called for a general election, Buckingham Palace announced the family would postpone engagements “which may appear to divert attention or distract from the election campaign.”  

While the palace doesn’t usually spell this out, it is pretty standard practice as the royals must stay neutral and above politics. As this is the first general election of Charles III’s reign, there may have been a desire from within the institution to emphasize this. So, what is the 75-year-old King’s role in the election, and can he vote?  

First off, the PM informed King Charles of his decision to call for a general election. That conversation happened on May 22, and it was at that point that the King agreed to Sunak’s request for the dissolution of parliament. Theoretically, Charles could have refused the request but that would be unprecedented in modern times. 

The King has spent the past few days in Scotland for “Holyrood Week,” an annual celebration in the royal calendar recognizing Scottish culture and community. However, he will be needed back in London by Friday. That’s because the day after a general election, the monarch invites the leader of the party that won the most seats in the House of Commons to Buckingham Palace.  

As head of state, the appointment of prime ministers is one of Charles’s core constitutional duties, along with the State Opening of Parliament and signing parliamentary bills into law. During the audience, they become prime minister and are invited to form a government in His Majesty’s name.  

 

2 hr 11 min ago

What election day has looked like across Britain

Voters up and down Britain have been putting their cross in their ballot papers, as church halls, schools and sports centers turn into polling stations for the day.

A dog waits outside a polling station as voters go to the polls in the UK general election on July 4, in Ingleby Cross, England. 

A dog waits outside a polling station as voters go to the polls in the UK general election on July 4, in Ingleby Cross, England. Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

And plenty of Brits brought their four-legged companions along for the experience.

A voter wrangles their dogs at a polling station in Glasgow, Scotland. 

A voter wrangles their dogs at a polling station in Glasgow, Scotland. Andrew Milligan/PA Wire

Broadcasters can’t report much about the election while polls are open – but there’s no rules preventing us from showing you as many democratic dogs as possible.

A group of dogs are posed for a photo at a polling station in London.

A group of dogs are posed for a photo at a polling station in London. Anna Skipwith/PA Wire

There’s less than an hour until we can bring you some real news – that’s when the exit poll will drop and we’ll get a sense of how the day has gone for all the parties.

A dog waits outside a polling station in Great Ayton, England.

A dog waits outside a polling station in Great Ayton, England. Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

 

2 hr 32 min ago

What to expect - and when - during election night in Britain

From CNN's Rob Picheta in London

Voters enter a polling station in Rhiwbina, north of Cardiff, Wales, on July 4.

Voters enter a polling station in Rhiwbina, north of Cardiff, Wales, on July 4. Geoff Caddick/AFP/Getty Images

Vote-counting in Britain begins the second that polls close, and we should have an idea of the winner a few hours later. Here’s a rough timeline of the night: 

The exit poll: At 10 p.m. local time (5 p.m. ET), the very second that polling stations across the UK close, a major exit poll will project the results of the night. The massive poll is conducted during election day, by pollster Ipsos, for the country’s main broadcasters – the BBC, ITV and Sky. Historically, it’s been an accurate guide to how the night will unfold. 

The first results: Around an hour and an half later, at 11:30 p.m. (6:30 p.m. ET), is when we can expect the first real results of the night. There’s always a race between a handful of seats in the northeast to declare first; the results here will give us clues as to which parties have had a good night. 

Key seats declare: By 2 a.m. (9 p.m. ET), we’ll have seen a handful of results and we’ll start to understand the narratives of the evening.  

A flood of results: Between 3 a.m. and 5 a.m. (10 p.m. and midnight ET) is when results come in thick and fast, and by the time this period is finished, we usually know who’s won and who’s lost the election.  

A trip to the King: After 9 a.m. (4 a.m. ET) is when we expect the winner of the election to travel to Buckingham Palace, where he will meet King Charles III and receive permission to form Britain’s next government. 

 

2 hr 33 min ago

Why can’t we report anything about the election yet?

By CNN's Rob Picheta in London

Members of the media set up broadcast positions in view of the Houses of Parliament in London, on Thursday, July 4. 

Members of the media set up broadcast positions in view of the Houses of Parliament in London, on Thursday, July 4. Betty Laura Zapata/Bloomberg/Getty Images

There is a limit to how much we can tell you about Britain’s election – at least until polls close in an hour or so. 

That’s because the country has strict rules on reporting while people are still voting. They apply to all broadcasters licensed in the United Kingdom, including CNN, forbidding them from reporting on campaign issues, opinion polls, political statements and candidates until the polling stations shut in the evening. 

The restrictions are far stronger than in many countries, such as the United States, where candidates continue campaigning on election day as they try to drive as many voters to the polls as possible.

The UK’s Office of Communications (Ofcom) enforces the regulations, which are designed to ensure political coverage is impartial and to prevent the media from influencing voters as ballots are being cast. 

It means that on election day, you won’t hear journalists or pundits speculating about politics on Britain’s TV and radio airwaves, or on digital sites. 

But that all changes at 10 p.m. local time (5 p.m. ET), the moment polls close. 

 

3 hr 17 min ago

How does the UK’s general election work?

A ballot box is pictured at Agape Centre in Belfast, Northern Ireland, ahead of polling stations opening on Thursday. 

A ballot box is pictured at Agape Centre in Belfast, Northern Ireland, ahead of polling stations opening on Thursday. Liam McBurney/PA /Getty Images

Britain has a first-past-the-post voting system – the make-up of its next parliament won’t be decided by vote share, but by how many seats each party wins.  

People have been casting ballots in each of the country’s 650 constituencies, selecting the member of parliament (MP) to represent the area. 

The leader of the party that wins a majority of those constituencies becomes prime minister, and can form a government. That means 326 is the magic number for an overall majority. 

If no party reaches that mark, the largest party could seek to lead as a minority government, or it could enter a coalition with other groups to get it over the line. 

 

3 hr 17 min ago

Polls are closing soon in Britain’s general election

People queue to vote at a polling station in London on July 4, as Britain holds a general election. 

People queue to vote at a polling station in London on July 4, as Britain holds a general election. Paul Ellis/AFP/Getty Images

People across Britain have been casting ballots in a general election, after a six-week campaign that has seen parties criss-cross the country. 

Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party have ruled Britain for 14 years, but are being challenged for power by the Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer. 

Polls opened at 7 a.m. (2 a.m. ET) and will close very soon, at 10 p.m. (5 p.m. ET). 

At that very moment, an exit poll will be released projecting who has won and how well parties have performed. Then votes will be counted through the night; a new government could be in place by late morning on Friday. 

We’ll bring you results and analysis through the night on this page. 

 

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